Exponential Theory by Aaron D. Bare

Author:Aaron D. Bare [Aaron D. Bare and N. Forbes Shannon]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Morgan James Publishing
Published: 2021-09-15T00:00:00+00:00

As we have discovered, the vision for the iPhone was not a new one to Apple. However, that’s where Jobs’ brilliance lies—in the planned and deliberate timing of the iPhone moment’s disruption. The iPhone moment was carefully crafted and planned by Jobs’ ability to recognize the market. Apple publicly denied the manufacturing of an iPhone or phone product for years, waiting for a time when society would be willing to accept and desire it. Jobs continually fought the launch of the iPhone, thinking they would be relegated to the “pocket protector” crowd. Then, the market aligned, and it was time to launch. A time when consumers wanted a phone, music device, camera, and organizer in their pocket. If they had rushed the iPhone, they could have ended up with yet another failed Pocket Crystal, Newton, or PalmPilot.

The iPhone is the biggest blockbuster of all time and has paved the way for success for many products to come. In 1994, when General Magic’s Pocket Crystal launched, there were fourteen million internet users, and one cellphone per one hundred people on Earth, and the first SMS text had been sent just two years prior. Marc Porat and the Pocket Crystal had failed. The world was not ready for it.

So how did Apple know that the world would be ready for the iPhone in 2007?

Let’s paint the picture (hindsight, after all, is twenty-twenty). It all started with Newton, Apple’s own personal digital assistant, which was launched in 1993 and improved throughout the 1990s, yet ultimately canceled and subsequently widely regarded as a flop. Newton was a slap in the face to General Magic and Marc Porat’s efforts, yet all these devices were too early for them to recognize commercial success. In 1997 came the PalmPilot, a competitor and better version of Apple’s Newton. Schedules, phone numbers, and more at the touch of a stylus on an efficient touch screen. For just $399, consumers could buy the PalmPilot Professional with a whopping one megabyte (MB) of storage. The PalmPilot was a fancy upper-class work status symbol. What the PalmPilot did prove was that consumers were moving toward smaller digital products. Consumers were interested in a portable assistant device like the PalmPilot.

At the same time, Steve Jobs—now known as one of the greatest digital disruptors on a mass scale—set out to take over the music industry. Before the iPod, music was sold in stores in the mall or through a mail service called Columbia House, selling eight cassette tapes and CDs for a penny and then hooking users into a monthly subscription service through the mail. Columbia House was the early prototype for Netflix. Sony released the first personal music listening device, the portable Walkman, in 1977. The Walkman played cassettes, and the public was buying into the idea of playing music on the go. But again, Jobs was here for the whole industry, not just a sliver of the market. Another CD or cassette player was not enough to feed Jobs desire for both technological and societal advancement.

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